How much room do housing prices have to rise? ——In-depth analysis based on recent hot topics and data
Recently, the real estate market has once again become the focus of public attention. As policy adjustments and expectations for economic recovery strengthen, housing prices in many places have fluctuated, and home buyers and investors have asked:Is there room for house prices to rise in the future?This article combines hot topics and structured data across the Internet in the past 10 days to analyze it for you from the dimensions of policy, supply and demand, and finance.
1. Policy trends: Coexistence of loosening restrictions and regulation
In the past 10 days, many places have introduced new policies for the property market. The core contents are as follows:
| City | Policy points | Effective time |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai | Easing purchase restrictions in Lingang New City | 2023-09-20 |
| Guangzhou | Reduce down payment ratio for second home to 30% | 2023-09-18 |
| Chengdu | Purchase restrictions on houses above 144 square meters will be lifted | 2023-09-15 |
2. Market supply and demand: differentiation trend intensifies
According to the latest statistical data, the inventory cycles of cities with different energy levels vary significantly:
| city type | Average inventory cycle (months) | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|
| first tier cities | 12.3 | -15% |
| New first-tier cities | 18.7 | +8% |
| Third and fourth tier cities | 26.4 | +22% |
3. Financial support: interest rates continue to fall
September LPR quotes show that mortgage interest rates have dropped to historical lows:
| Loan type | current interest rate | Changes from the beginning of the year |
|---|---|---|
| first suite | 4.10% | -0.35% |
| Second suite | 4.90% | -0.25% |
4. List of house price changes in hot cities
Top 5 cities with month-on-month price increases in the past 30 days:
| Ranking | City | Month-on-month increase | Hot sectors |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Xi'an | 1.8% | High-tech Zone |
| 2 | Hangzhou | 1.5% | Future Technology City |
| 3 | hefei | 1.2% | Binhu New District |
5. Expert views: Structural opportunities and risks
1.Zhang Bin, researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social SciencesHe believes: "High-quality real estate in core cities can still maintain value, but we need to be wary of inventory pressure in third- and fourth-tier cities."
2.Yan Yuejin of Yiju Research Institutepointed out: "The policy toolbox has not yet been fully opened, and there may be more benefits in the fourth quarter."
6. Forecast of future trends
Taking into account various factors, it is expected that housing prices in 2023-2024 will show the following characteristics:
•first tier cities: There is still room for growth of 5-8% in core areas
•New first-tier cities: The differentiation is obvious, and some new areas may suffer stagflation.
•Ordinary prefecture-level city: Exchanging price for volume is still the main theme
Home buyers are advised to pay close attention toImportant meetings in Octoberrelease policy signals and make rational decisions based on their own needs. Please note that the analysis in this article is based on public data and does not constitute investment advice.
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